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There was a lengthy discussion at the end of last year about standardizing the capitalization of prepositions and the like, and the general consensus was to use the Wikipedia style - them being capitalized only if they're 5 or more letters long.  If you search up other titles, you'll see the word "over" isn't capitalized anywhere:

• Aces over Europe

• Crash: Mind over Mutant

• Secret Weapons over Normandy

And the serial field is written exactly as-is only on the disc itself.  You can't expect a dumper to always have the cover, but they'll definitely have the disc if they have something to submit.  The spine serial, if it is different, can be added to the comments, however.
Asian Sony discs almost never have the hyphen, and European Sony discs almost always have it.  Don't have much experience with North American Sony discs personally to know which one is more commonly printed.
(Some minor exceptions also exist, mostly with development discs that don't have any serial printed, so the internal serial is sometimes used instead etc. etc., even though this would be technically against the guidelines.)

In regards to the disc serial question:
Obviously, it's not coming from the spines of the covers.
All of my PS3 discs show the serials like this on the spine:
ABCD
12345

So, I'm just very curious how we determine whether a game has a hyphen in it's serial or not?